Geographic Profiling of Criminal Groups for Military Cordon and Search

In the course of counter-insurgency campaigns, military forces expend considerable resources and time conducting cordon and search operations in an effort to interdict and suppress criminal groups. However, these operations have a low success rate, with most operations yielding little intelligence or marginal tactical gains while simultaneously angering the local populace. This paper demonstrates methods for improving the success rate of cordon and search operations by leveraging Criminal Site Selection (CSS) models for geographic profiling. This new modeling approach provides statistically significant performance improvements over the current best method for geographic profiling and provides geographic profiles that are often accurate enough to facilitate tactical success, with the modeled criminal group’s anchor point falling within the search profile for military unit cordon and search operations.